How to Revise Ranked Probabilities

نویسنده

  • Emil Weydert
چکیده

In this paper, we introduce and discuss a new framework for the modeling and revision of probabilistic belief. The epistemic states encode degrees of belief topped by second-order uncertainty using special Spohn-type ranking measures over subjective probability distributions. The revision strategy, which handles incoming information translated into linear probability constraints, is based on variants of Jeffrey-conditionalization and information distance minimization.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

ارزیابی ریسک احتمالی به روش آنالیز درخت خطای فازی بر پایه ی دو نوع توزیع امکان وقوع نقص در صنایع فرآیندی

Introduction: Probabilistic risk assessment using fault tree analysis is an effective tool to assess occurrence probability of hazardous events in chemical process industries. Unfortunately, the failure occurrence probability of the basic events are often not available in process industries. The aim of this study is how calculate basic events failure occurrence probability when basic events do ...

متن کامل

Infants' Early Understanding of Coincidences

Coincidences are surprising events that can provide learners with the opportunity to revise their theories about how the world works. In the current research, we investigate whether infants are truly sensitive to coincidences, detecting these events even when they cannot be predicted mere probabilities. In addition, we explore whether this sensitivity is translated into action, encouraging infa...

متن کامل

Calibrated probabilities and the epistemology of disagreement

The epistemology of disagreement concerns the normative question of how you ought to revise your beliefs in a very specific epistemic context. Imagine that you and a peer form an opinion in isolation about whether P in response to mutually shared evidence, and you take your peer to be just as reliable as you about matters of this kind. How are you to respond should you subsequently discover tha...

متن کامل

Prioritising, Ranking and Resource Implementation - A Normative Analysis

Background Priority setting in publicly financed healthcare systems should be guided by ethical norms and other considerations viewed as socially valuable, and we find several different approaches for how such norms and considerations guide priorities in healthcare decision-making. Common to many of these approaches is that interventions are ranked in relation to each other, following the appli...

متن کامل

Design Based Estimation of Finite Population Mean in Ranked Set Sampling

Abstract. This Article introduce method of ranked set sampling with replacement (RSSWR) in finite population and express how to computing samples of inclusion probability for this method. The Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwtz estimators using auxiliary variables introduce for this design and use 2011-12 Urban Households Income and Income and Expenditure survey data, gathered for Tehran by stat...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2000